Live · Bullpen day 1/28Public AI co-pilot journal·brief 26-05-22· 3h ago·archive

Trading

net –·win –·trades 0·active 1·closed 0

Public read-only view of an AI co-pilot trading desk. The stack (Claude Code + Codex) generates a daily brief every morning; setups come from there; full theses ship to @themmucko before any trade. Closed trades publish realized R + one-line lesson. Wallet, account size, and live prices stay private. Trades execute on Bullpen.fi, not here. Bullpen Market Bubble Invitational is live. Day 1 of 28.

Today on the desk · narrative

Macro regime unavailable this run (staleSources: macroState); equities bid (SP500 +0.55%, XYZ100 +0.66%) while both crude benchmarks slide (CL -1.57%, Brent -0.80%), pointing to a bifurcated picture - equity risk-on but deflationary commodity signal. BTC funding near zero (0.21 bps) with longs building per on-chain liquidity data and CoinTelegraph flow analysis; no crowding, $80-82K targets in play - cleanest long on the board. ETH is structurally challenged: Harvard dumped its entire position after one quarter, resistance sits at 2153 two handles above spot, and longs are paying funding into that overhead supply. NEAR pumped 20% with no identifiable news catalyst in the payload and funding spiked to 64.99 bps - textbook crowded pump; DRAM similarly running 64.79 bps on a +0.6% move, suggesting capital trapped at expensive cost basis.

Actionable setups · 5

BTClong

entry

76700

stop

76037

target (7.4R)

81623

Near-zero funding (0.21 bps) is the primary signal - longs are building without paying a crowding premium. CoinTelegraph liquidity imbalance data and on-chain longs-soaring report both point at $80-82K next. Macro regime is unavailable but equities are not selling off, removing the obvious headwind. Entry at 24h support 76700 on pullback; invalidation at 7d support 76037 (support structure breakdown); target 7d resistance 81623. R:R approximately 7.4:1.

NEARshort

entry

2.1049

stop

2.3

target (1.8R)

1.75

NEAR pumped 20% in 24h with no identifiable catalyst in the fundamentals payload. Funding hit 64.99 bps - longs are paying a punishing carry to hold a position at the top of a vertical move. Elevated funding into a no-catalyst pump is a reliable mean-reversion signal in crypto perps. Entry at market; invalidation at 2.30 (new high extension that would imply continued catalyst); target 1.75 pre-pump base. Levels are estimated from price structure - no key levels in data payload for this symbol.

ETHshort

entry

2153

stop

2180

target (2.8R)

2077

Harvard exited its entire ETH position after one quarter - institutional distribution into current levels. Price at 2137.6 with 24h resistance at 2153 two handles overhead; short into that resistance. Longs paying 12.5 bps funding into known supply. Ethereum dev proposing a $1B organization adds noise but no immediate price catalyst. Invalidation set at resistance24h + ATR14 (2153 + 26.95 = 2180); target 7d support 2077. R:R approximately 2.8:1.

HYPElong

entry

55.514

stop

53.186

target (3.0R)

62.596

HYPE is the HL native token with uptrend intact (+1.63% on the day). Funding at 12.5 bps is mild - not crowded. Entry at 24h support 55.514 on any intraday dip; invalidation one ATR below entry (55.514 - 2.328 = 53.186, below the 24h support band floor); target 7d resistance 62.596 which aligns with 24h resistance. R:R approximately 3.0:1. Macro equities-bid environment supports risk-on crypto positioning.

CLshort

entry

97.492

stop

99.602

target (1.9R)

93.566

WTI down 1.57% with funding slightly negative (-0.52 bps) - shorts are not crowded, downtrend has room. Oil weakness corroborates the deflationary commodity read (Brent also -0.80%, NatGas -1.23%). No macro events in payload that would spike crude. Entry at market; tight invalidation at entry + ATR14 (97.492 + 2.11 = 99.602) to keep stop inside the noise band; target 7d support band 93.566. R:R approximately 1.86:1.

Research candidates from the daily brief. Only setups that also ship as a thesis on @themmucko become live trades.

Watchlist top 10 (of 25)

sym	class	price	24h	funding	score	tag
BTC	crypto	77758	-0.34%	0.0002%	8/10	Near-zero funding, longs building, liquidity imbalance eyes $80-82K
HYPE	crypto	57.317	+1.63%	0.0013%	6/10	HL native uptrend intact, mild 12.5 bps funding, room to 62.6
CL	commodity	97.492	-1.56%	-0.0005%	6/10	WTI downtrend, negative funding, deflationary macro read
ETH	crypto	2137.6	-0.35%	0.0013%	6/10	Harvard dumped full position, resistance at 2153 overhead, longs paying into supply
NEAR	crypto	2.1049	+19.99%	0.0065%	7/10	+20% pump, no catalyst in payload, 64.99 bps funding - crowded long, fade territory
DRAM	stock	53.692	+0.60%	0.0065%	6/10	64.79 bps funding on +0.6% move - longs paying maximum premium for minimal price action
BRENTOIL	commodity	100.98	-0.80%	0.0027%	5/10	Brent soft, longs still paying 27 bps - structural long trap risk alongside CL weakness
ZEC	crypto	656.07	-2.94%	-0.0053%	5/10	Strongly negative funding (-52.7 bps) with price down - shorts crowded, potential squeeze setup
SNDK	stock	1533.2	+7.53%	0.0006%	5/10	+7.5% catalyst move, neutral funding post-pump, memory sector leader
SP500	index	7461.2	+0.55%	-0.0007%	4/10	Equities grinding higher, negative funding (shorts paying), macro risk-on signal

News (last 24h)

Cross-CEX funding (HL vs Binance / Bybit / OKX)

sym	HL	Binance	Bybit	OKX	div
HYPE	+0.0013%	+0.0050%	+0.0100%	+0.0100%	1 bps
BTC	+0.0002%	+0.0038%	+0.0064%	+0.0015%	0 bps
ETH	+0.0013%	+0.0064%	+0.0043%	+0.0062%	0 bps

Green = negative funding (shorts pay longs, bullish squeeze fuel). Red = positive (longs crowded). div = max-min spread; > 5 bps highlighted.

Macro state

regime: unknownstale

Macro data unavailable (data provider rate-limited)

Active theses · 1

HYPEshortactive
entry 57.754
stop 61.3

Closed theses · 0

Nothing closed publicly yet.

Post-mortems · 0

None yet.

Glossary

R-multiple (R): Realized profit or loss as a multiple of the dollar risked at entry. -1R = a full stop-out. +2R = twice the risk made back.
Net R: Sum of realized R across all closed trades. Wallet, position dollars, and live prices stay private; only R is published.
Conv score 0-10: AI co-pilot conviction rating per watchlist symbol. Higher = stronger setup quality. Not a buy signal on its own.
Funding: Perpetual funding rate. Positive = longs pay shorts (longs crowded). Negative = shorts pay longs. Near-zero = balanced.
OI / Open Interest: Total contracts open for that symbol. Rising OI with rising price = real buying. Rising OI with falling price = real shorting.
Support / Resistance: Levels where price has bounced (support) or stalled (resistance). Used to place entries and stops.
Thesis: 4-layer pre-trade write-up: macro setup, catalyst, edge vs consensus, and the plan. Public only after it ships on @themmucko.
Post-mortem: Short closing note after a trade: realized R, hold time, key lesson. Linked back to its parent thesis.
Mode: Warm-up = building the system before Bullpen MBI. Live = trading during the 4-week tournament window (May 21 - Jun 18, 2026).